The EC and the UK

When it comes to our UK national referendum on whether we should stay in or leave the EC, I am undecided. In many ways the EC is a good thing. On the other hand it is a creaking bureaucracy in great need of reform. I like that Europe has been (largely) at peace in my lifetime. I like free trade in Europe. However, we are a small island running out of room, with creaking services and the UK should have the final say over who lives and works here.  I am in favour of a common market. Why do we need more?

I really feel for the genuine migrants fleeing conflict. Having had a nasty tummy bug in the comfort of my own home, I cannot help thinking how much worse this would have been if I was also cold,wet and hungry and thousands of miles from home. Even worse if you are a child who does not understand. Personally I think we should take more real refugees but not economic migrants.

No, there is still a great deal that needs fixing. Mr Cameron has NOT basically changed anything his recent negotiations. We are being asked to stay, when really very very little has changed.

So, in summary, I am undecided which way to vote. At the moment I am voting to leave, but I may well change my mind.

FTSE 100 share index

The FTSE 100 share index has fallen back quite a bit from its recent highs. I am not too surprised. Greece is still filled with uncertainty and we, in the UK, have an EU referendum coming up, probably next year, the outcome of which is far from certain.   Personally I think Greece will default and eventually leave the Eurozone.  Greece is not a good place to be currently. The UK referendum is bound to create a climate of uncertainty. Markets like stability.

I hope we, in the UK, vote to stay in the EU, but that some of its ways are changed. It does seem bogged down with rules that work against an open market, which is really what we joined in 1975. Some of our population issues are of our own making due to our relatively good economy, but I still feel we, the UK, should have the last word on who can stay and work here, not the bureaucrats in Brussels.  At the moment, the EU seems to have the last word.

If we do not want a federal Europe that is our decision. We have always been "on the edge" of Europe both politically and geographically and I hope this continues. Yes to a common EU market, but no to the UK in the Euro and a federal Europe. Fine for those that want it.  Actually the whole EU would benefit from some reform. In many countries the pressure is building and the politicians need to listen to the voice of the people.

UK immigration

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30167160 .

The Home Secretary has said on TV that UK immigration target are unlikely to be met.

The Conservatives published some very ambitious targets, that frankly, were a joke unless the immigration pattern was drastically changed. This remains a very contentious issue central to the next General Election. Making such STUPID claims about immigration targets serves no good at all.

We are a small, overcrowded, island and HAVE to be able to manage our immigration numbers. Currently we are a magnet for people and we need to understand just why this is so. I hope we can find a way of controlling immigration and stay in the EU, but if we don't we may have no choice but to leave.  If we go, others will follow us.

Incidentally, free movement within the EU means about 800000 UK people now live in Spain. It is not just people coming into the UK,although our small size makes net immigration an acute issue. Some skills we definitely need and this is likely to continue to be the case. We just need better controls, whether by looking at points, welfare or whatever.

I am no UKIP supporter, but I do understand the issues.

UKIP recent successes

In the last few months, UKIP has gained its first 2 MPs taking votes from the Conservative, Labour and the Lib Dems. As I said before, in the General Election next spring it could all be very different At the moment  UKIP is picking up protest votes and this is unlikely to be the case in a General Election when people are electing the party to govern us for the next 5 years. Both the major parties will have been rattled by the results of the by-election results from Rochester and Strood. The Lib Dems did very badly indeed with the Greens polling higher than them.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30140747 .

I still do not know who to vote for in the next General Election, but it will not be UKIP.   To me, this party is maybe OK as a protest, but it would be a disaster if they helped form the next government. They seem to stand for just one thing: get the UK out of the EC.  Personally, I believe our relationship with our European friends will change somewhat, but I hope we remain close partners with our friends in mainland Europe.

TTIP

See http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ttip/about-ttip/  .

The latest G20 meeting seems to have "oiled wheels" on this trade deal between the USA and Europe. David Cameron is in a difficult place as the USA wants to deal with Europe and not with Europe less the UK and the UK.

It will be interesting to see what, if anything, comes out of the G20 on climate change policies. Australia is the worst emitter of greenhouse gases and did not really want to talk about it.

That £1.7billion EC surcharge

I am unclear whether or not Chancellor George Osborne really got a reduction from the EC or not.  Mr Cameron's opposition parties are claiming it is all "smoke and mirrors" and the UK tax payer will have to pay the very same amount. To me, it does smack of political games.  Sad and pathetic.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29965113 .

Will we leave the EU?

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29874392 .

So Germany would rather see us leave the European Community than modify immigration rules. It now looks quite possible that, following a David Cameron referendum in 2017 (assuming he forms the next government) we could exit the EC/EU. We have always been "on the edge" in more than just the physical sense (as an island). I have no idea how this would impact the UK. We may end up better or worse as a result. For good reasons, the UK has never quite got on board "the European experiment". On this issue, I really have no idea how such a referendum would go.

Recent history might suggest we might be OK, but really no-one knows.

From the BBC website:

This is the first time that Mrs Merkel has acknowledged that the UK's exit from the EU is possible, Der Spiegel said.

According to the Sunday Times, Germany has already rejected a proposal to impose quotas on low-skilled EU migrants by limiting the national insurance numbers issued to them.

Der Spiegel reported that Mr Cameron was now looking at a plan to stretch the EU rules "to their limits" in order to ban migrants who do not have job, and to deport those who are unable to support themselves after three months.

On Sunday, Conservative MP and former justice secretary Kenneth Clarke defended EU migration.
"If you're going to have a sensible single market, if we want to compete with the Americans and the Chinese and so on and modern world, we need the free movement of labour," he told BBC's Sunday Politics.

A Downing Street spokesperson said: "The prime minister will do what is right for Britain, as he has repeatedly made clear."

More money to the EC?

So, because our economy is doing well we owe the EC billions more? This seems unfair and plays right into the hands of those in the UK who are anti-Europe. The question is did we agree to this before it all happened? I suspect we are moaning now, but this clause has been in place for years!

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29754168 .  UK PM David Cameron says we are not paying next month, but what's the betting we soon have to pay up?

Extract from the BBC website:

David Cameron has angrily insisted the UK will not pay £1.7bn being demanded by the European Union.

"If people think I am paying that bill on 1 December, they have another think coming," the prime minister said in Brussels. "It is not going to happen."
But Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the demand should "not have come as a surprise" to the UK.
He said it was made under a system agreed by all the member states and based on data provided by them.
EU finance ministers have agreed to the UK's request for emergency talks about the top-up payment, which would add about a fifth to the UK's annual net EU contribution of £8.6bn.

Mr Barroso's speech today

So the outgoing EC president, Mr Jose Barroso, thinks we will make an "historic mistake" if we leave the EC.  He may be right, but staying within the EC at any cost to the UK is not an option, The UK is keen on a single common market - a level playing field - but seeks ultimate control over its own borders and laws. These are aspirations shared by many EC countries. They are reasonable wishes for our parliament to reign supreme in the UK.

Personally I hope we don't leave the EC, but that the EC will change somewhat.  If the EC does not change we may have no choice but to leave them to it.  I cannot imagine the EC not changing. Were we to leave, I bet we won't be the last.  I cannot see it being a disaster for the UK. Other countries manage. The benefits of membership have to outweigh the downsides.

By the way I am not a UKIP supporter. I am very much a floating voter and have no idea who I shall be voting for in the UK General Election next spring. It will be a difficult decision.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29684585 .