BREXIT

One thing everyone in the UK can agree on about BREXIT is, "this is a fine mess". The world must be looking at the UK and thinking how stupid we must be! I am sure there is brinkmanship going on on the part of the EU and UK government, but at the moment we are heading (by mistake) for a no-deal BREXIT that no-one wants. 

The EU does a lot of trade with the UK, we need EU low skilled workers in our fields, care homes and hospitals. The EU will miss our money going into the pot. The EU is desperate for other nations not to leave. Time will tell how this will pan out. 

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46617152 .

EU and Brexit

So the EU has published its draft bill on the UK leaving the EU. Since it was published, the UK pound has lost value against all major currencies. No doubt it will recover, but at the moment the UK seems to be fumbling around over what it really wants once we leave.

Why did we not say the referendum would not be binding unless the majority was x %? As it is the margin of "leave" over "remain" was a small 4%, with almost a half not wishing to leave the EU. I suspect fewer would vote leave now. Many want controls over immigration but still want the tariff-free trade with the EU.

EU sour grapes?

Although I voted to remain a member, I detect a note of "sour grapes" on the part of the EU. Do I detect a note of bitterness that the UK will no longer pay some of the budget?

It seems perfectly reasonable to me that the UK wants the same policy to apply to all people who wish to live and work in the UK irrespective of the nation they come from.

It also seems quite reasonable that we would want to start work on trade deals whilst we are in the transition period.

No, I am beginning to detect an air of "sour grapes" on the part of the EU. In the end I think the EU will regret this.

All we really wanted was more control over who lives and works here on this small island. We will still trade with EU nations and others as we choose.

A second BREXIT vote?

OK, I may be wrong (I often am!) but I think the people of the UK want to be able to trade freely within the EU, but at the same time want to say who lives and works here. The UK people are precious about the UK parliament having the last word on laws. We also hate waste and profligatism (is that a word?) in the EU.

If a second referendum vote was ever to take place and the questions carefully worded, it would not surprise me if we voted to stay in.

As I have said many times before, there is a lot wrong with the EU and a lot right. Personally, I think the UK people would like a reformed EU. Arguably, the EU has kept peace in Europe (mainly) for half a century, but it needs to evolve or it will fall apart.

Catalonia - a looming crisis?

Catalonia is quite a rich part of Spain. Spain cannot afford for it to break-away. It is hard to see how the EU would handle this. If Catalonia goes, surely the Basques will want to follow? This would leave Spain in a right mess. By comparison, BREXIT is quite simple and clear. Personally, I think this will grow into the EU crisis of 2018.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41678086 .

EU and BREXIT talks

At the moment the EU seems to want to play "hard ball" with the UK over Brexit. Personally, I think it is in the interest of most in the EU to reach a good settlement.

Many of us in the UK only wanted Brexit so we could keep control over our population: we are a small island with limited space and resources. Like many, I actually voted to remain in the EU, even though it was/is far from perfect.

No, personally, I think the hard EU line is because they are peeved we are leaving and will no longer contribute money to the project. EU nations need our trade. We will be free to trade with the world on our terms.

EU - get real!

Leaving the EU

Article 50, the trigger to leave the EU, has now been invoked, with 2 years ahead to negotiate our exit from the "club".  Although we have some tough decisions and negotiations ahead, the UK pound has not collapsed. If anything it is a little stronger against the euro.

Although I voted to remain in the EU, I am pretty sure we'll be fine in the UK.  The rest of the EU faces quite difficult times ahead. In truth, Europe needs us as much as we need them.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm .

EU and the UK pound

Since the Prime Minister clarified our position on leaving the EU following the BREXIT vote, I see that the UK pound is up against every currency. I guess people had already factored in that we are leaving the EU and are happy to have some certainty now.

Although I have said this before, it would not surprise me if the Euro lost a lot of value this year. The EU is in grave danger of falling apart.

I voted to "remain" in the EU, but many nations want free trade but NOT a United States of Europe. France is France. Germany is Germany, etc..  National identity IS important.  Originally the EU was about maintaining peace in Europe, but it has grown a lot in recent years and has rather lost its way.  Basically I think the EU is "a good thing" but it must not be a "gravy train": it should serve the people of Europe.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm .

The Future

We now have a new Prime Minister and Cabinet. We voted to leave the EU. The future is a book still to be written. I very much hope we welcome genuine refugees fleeing conflict in their own lands.

I wish the new PM well, but it is a VERY long time go that I voted Conservative! Leaving the EU and still remaining good friends with our European neighbours will not be easy.

As I have said before, we like the idea of free trade but not free movement of people to our small island. We already are crowded with a high population density. Unlike Germany with a falling population we do not actually need people.

Of course, genuine refugees fleeing conflict are always welcome. We welcomed Hugenots, German Jews and others in the past and I hope we are still a welcoming place for those fleeing trouble in their own lands. Most British have always welcomed refugees. I remember being at school with a boy from Hungary in the late 1950s. I hope he soon felt at home.

The EU referendum - vote!

If we vote to leave the EU I shall not be too surprised. It is vital that everyone votes as this will impact the UK for years to come.

The REMAIN campaign has been very negative and focused on the harm to the UK if we vote to leave and not the benefits of being "in the club".  A vote to leave will probably mean that Scotland will want another referendum and lead to the break-up of the UK. If we leave the EU then I think others will follow and the Euro will collapse. This is serious for the world.

It is entirely possible we could vote to remain in the EU. One thing is certain: the outcome is too close to call.

It is possible David Cameron will continue as UK Prime Minister for years to come. On the other hand we could see Boris as PM as early as November. What is certain is that politics is changing. If we leave I suspect a lurch to the right politically will occur. This is happening in many EU nations and this is dangerous.

Although my wife and I voted IN (remain), the outcome could go either way. The EU cannot continue as a weak protectionist club. It has to change or it will fall apart. The danger of this happening has never been greater.

EU Referendum

As we are away on the day when voting takes place, we have voted by postal vote. We posted our votes off today. The outcome will be close.

The EU Referendum

With only a few weeks to go, the outcome is hard to judge. Yes, the EU needs to reform, we are probably better off as a nation IN the EU than out of it, the campaign has been poor, leaving the EU would be hard but not a disaster.

EU referendum

The UK votes in a referendum on whether to remain in the EU or leave on June 23rd 2016.

Like many, I am undecided.

The UK is not a world power with an empire - this went years ago. The EU is a gravy train for bureaucrats and is an unelected quango in the main creating so many laws that most small companies cannot keep up with them.  At the same time, WW3 starting in Europe has not occurred and as long as there is an EU is unlikely. There is much wrong with the EU, but much of it is a force for good. The EU needs to reform.

No I am still undecided.

What I do know is this is a very important decision which will effect us for years to come. I think the vote will be very close. Should we vote to leave, I think others will follow too not many years down the line.

My gut says leave but my logical self says stay in. The best outcome would be if the EU was a real force for good in the world. It puzzles me why so many countries seem to accept it as it is.

UPDATE 1400z:  I am really fed up with NEGATIVE messages and spin.

President Obama and the EU referendum

In the UK referendum I am likely to vote "IN" to remain in the EU but I get saddened by all the negativity and "spin" on both sides in this debate. The intervention by the current US president Obama does little good.

We have not had a trade deal with the US before and who is likely to benefit? Well, the USA of course.

Mr Obama, your intervention, although possibly well meant, is probably going to encourage people to vote "OUT".

It is fine to have an opinion (like I am amazed by the support in the USA for Mr Trump) but if you were in the EU Mr President you would not want the centralism in Brussels.  The EU needs to change and the UK is better in there shaping it in my view.

Your intervention is likely to backfire Mr Obama and is not helpful I am afraid.

UPDATE 2200z:  President Obama is quoted as having said that a trade deal with the USA could take "up to 10 years if we left the EU". Should we be voting to leave then?

Britain and the EU

Just watched the second Nick Robinson BBC2 programme about Britain and the EU. Some decent information in this series. If you are looking for real information,and NOT spin, I suggest you watch this on iPlayer or Catch-up if you can.

EU referendum

There is a poor quality debate on this matter. We vote on whether or not to remain in the EU in less than 10 weeks but the quality of the arguments is very poor.

The UK has looked towards the EU as a common market and never with a view to a political union. Many in Europe see it as a way to keep peace in Europe. At the moment I am still inclined to vote "IN" but the politicians here are certainly not winning hearts and minds on either side.

The debate needs to be more positive! All I hear are fear and uncertainty.

That EU referendum again

It is now 10 weeks until people in the UK hold a referendum to decide whether or not to stay in the EU. At the moment I am voting "IN" but I have been appalled by the campaigns so far. What comes across are fear and uncertainty. No-one seems to have anything positive to say! I hope this changes.

EU referendum

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36024492

As a "floating voter" in the coming EU referendum I am not impressed by the £9M government publication going to each home and the negativity of the "IN" campaign.

Surely if staying in is a good thing, there are positive messages, not just more negative comments, that can be shared? My instinct is to vote "IN" but I may well change my mind.

I have a brain and intend to use it. I need to hear positive reasons to stay in the EU. All this negativity is counter-productive.

Mark Carney - leaving EU would be biggest domestic risk

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35751919 .

It seems a bit suspicious that the banks and big business want us to vote IN. At the moment I am in favour of IN, but I could well be persuaded otherwise if the facts are clearly presented without the spin.

The EC and the UK

When it comes to our UK national referendum on whether we should stay in or leave the EC, I am undecided. In many ways the EC is a good thing. On the other hand it is a creaking bureaucracy in great need of reform. I like that Europe has been (largely) at peace in my lifetime. I like free trade in Europe. However, we are a small island running out of room, with creaking services and the UK should have the final say over who lives and works here.  I am in favour of a common market. Why do we need more?

I really feel for the genuine migrants fleeing conflict. Having had a nasty tummy bug in the comfort of my own home, I cannot help thinking how much worse this would have been if I was also cold,wet and hungry and thousands of miles from home. Even worse if you are a child who does not understand. Personally I think we should take more real refugees but not economic migrants.

No, there is still a great deal that needs fixing. Mr Cameron has NOT basically changed anything his recent negotiations. We are being asked to stay, when really very very little has changed.

So, in summary, I am undecided which way to vote. At the moment I am voting to leave, but I may well change my mind.